COMMENTARY: Tournament Results

I posted the final tournament results. I learned that FIFA counts penalty shoot out wins and losses as draws, so I made that change to the database and the display of the brackets.

It was an entertaining tournament. The balance and high level of play throughout the tournament by all the managers made for great matches and a terrific atmosphere.

Lahman's Brazil is a deserving champion. Brazil really came into form after the group stage. They looked vulnerable in the group, drawing Han's Turkey and barely beating Murray's Costa Rica and Hamilton's lowly China, the 32nd out of 32 teams in the tournament. But Lahman was magnificent in the elimination round, dusting off Tunisia, Kipnis' weakest team, Han's Sweden (who finished 8th overall) and Jones' Belgium (3rd overall) en route to the final with Paraguay, which he also dominated.

Lahman wins the top manager honors with 36 points in 18 matches. Jones (30 points), Lasky (29) and Kipnis (28) were neck and neck for runner-up, but with two scrappy teams in the semi-finals after the #8 pick in the draft, Jones gets props for his second-place finish. Kipnis and Lasky showed promise coming out of group play -- Kipnis had four teams in the knock-out round; Lasky had three. But, aside from Lasky's Ireland which made the semi's, they did not perform well -- both Spain and Argentina were sent packing in the round of sixteen, as was USA, Tunisia, Denmark and Korea. Han fared much better, getting two of his three second round teams (Croatia & Sweden) into the quarter-finals, as did Cibulski, who got Italy -- his only second round team -- all the way to the quarter's after a dismal group stage that left his three other teams near the bottom of the tournament table in the 25th (Senegal), 28th (Russia) and 29th positions (Slovenia).

Lahman also wins the golden boot on both measures -- total goals (39) and goals per game (2.17), just overtaking Kipnis in the goals per game category by .05 -- on the strength of the four goal performance in the final match. If he had scored only three goals in the final, he would have lost the golden boot to Kipnis by .01. Lasky wins the top keeper category on both measures by a very wide margin with the fewest goals (10 in 17 matches -- with the next best Kipnis at 19 in 16 matches), fewest goals allowed per game (0.59), and a remarkable 9 clean sheets. His defensive record in the final stage was exemplary -- only 3 goals allowed in 5 matches (against Han twice, Kipnis, Lahman and Jones) and recording 3 clean sheets (including the 0-0 game vs. Paraguay lost on penalties).

Overall, it was far more competitive than the last tournament, in which the semi-finalist managers (Jones, Lahman and Kipnis) went a combined 20-0-5/+104 (a winning % of .800). This time, the semi-finalists (Jones, Lahman, and Lasky) went 27-14-13/+32 (.630). Goals per game is another measure of how lopsided the last tournament was -- four managers had greater than 3 goals per game and Jones won the golden boot with a 4.25 goals per game average -- almost twice Lahman's winning average in this tournament. In the group stage of the last tournament, five out of the eight groups had a winner on 9 points and a runner-up on 6, meaning two teams beat the crap out of everyone else, and one beat the other. This time, only two groups had a 9 point winner (both Kipnis' teams), and only one of them had a 6 point runner-up (eventual finalist Paraguay in Group B). I think the pre-handicapped draft helped a lot, because nobody had a distinct advantage with their teams -- everyone had bad teams and everyone had a shot at the final.

My only regret is that the poor performance of three teams -- Spain/Kipnis, Argentina/Lasky and Germany/Han -- robbed us of any viable challengers to Brazil in the semi-final and final. Paraguay and Ireland mucked up the Korean half of the bracket by taking out Germany and Spain, respectively, then hanging on to get past Italy and Croatia in the quarter's, before playing to a 0-0 draw in regulation that Jones won on penalties to reach the final. Argentina's shock loss to Uruguay deprived the Japanese half of the bracket of defenders capable of stopping Brazil, leaving Jones' less talented Belgium to the task.

But, as they say, that's football.

BRAZIL WINS THE CUP

Brazil 4, Paraguay 1. Brazil's quality was, ultimately, just too much for Paraguay, as Jones' over-achieving side fell to Lahman's jogo bonito. Jones' Paraguay started well, looking organized on defense and converting one of two good chances in the first thirty minutes. But Lahman's Brazil was relentless on attack, grabbing an equalizer on 36 minutes and sending wave after wave of yellow shirts forward. Lahman also showed previously unseen finesse with his passing, particularly around the penalty box. Paraguay looked a lot less organized on defense in the second half, and Brazil pounced, scoring three goals off great build-ups out of midfield, and looking like they could have scored three more after getting thirteen shots in the match, several of them missed opportunities when clear on goal. On one occasion, Paraguay cleared the ball literally off the goal line, with Chilavert well beaten.

Lahman gets revenge on Jones for the last tournament final, in which Jones' Paraguay defeated Lahman's Poland 3-1. Brazil was overwhelming during the final stage of the tournament, scoring 17 goals and allowing only 3 in four matches. Brazil finishes the tournament 6-1-0 (+16) with 22 goals. Lahman finishes 11-3-4 (+14). Paraguay proved to be a weak finalist, after needing two penalty shoot outs to advance to the deciding match. Paraguay finishes 3-2-2 (+0); Jones finishes 8-6-5 (+8), edging Lasky for runner-up manager honors by a single point, and Kipnis by just two points.

Congratulations to Lahman on a terrific tournament win!

SEMI-FINAL RESULTS!

Brazil 2, Belgium 0. Lahman's Brazil showed why they are the class of the tournament, beating Belgium on both ends of the pitch. Man-of-the-match Cafu completely shut down the scoring threat of Mpenza. Lahman advances to the final once again, and given the limited talent in the top half of the bracket, looks tough to beat.

Paraguay 0, Ireland 0 (0-0 AET) 3-0 PSO. A tremendous defensive match, extremely well-played by both sides, but with precious few chances on goal. The game ended scoreless in regulation and remained that way through extra time. Paraguay's Chilavert saved Ireland's first penalty, their second hit the post, and Chilavert saved their third. Meanwhile, Paraguay converted on all three of their penalties to win the match and advance to the final. It is the second straight year that Jones/Paraguay goes to the tournament final.

NEWS: Cibulski returns; Paraguay joins the final four.

Italy 2, Kipnis 1. Cibulski's Italy spotted Kipnis' outmatched Korea a goal, then roared back to score two and the win. Cibulski advance to the quarter-finals for the second straight tournament (he got there with Russia last year). The loss by Korea ended Kipnis' ignominious final stage performance, during which the dominator of group stage play suffered four consecutive losses in the round of sixteen, getting outscored 10-2.

Paraguay 2, Italy 0. Unfortunately, Cibulski's luck ran out in the quarter-finals, where Italy ran into Jones' surprisingly strong Paraguay. Jones once again demonstrated how he elevates his game for the play-offs, getting Paraguay into the semi-finals for the second straight tournament, and, as he did in last year's tournament, getting two teams into the final four.

ANALYSIS: SEMI-FINAL MATCH-UPS

Ireland vs. Italy-Korea-Paraguay winner. TBD

Brazil (Lahman) vs. Belgium (Jones). A clash of titans -- a rematch of the managers in last year's final -- and the two best offensive teams playing in the final stage. Lahman's Brazil is 4-1-0, with 16 goals for and 5 goals against. Brazil's lone draw came 1-1 against Han's Turkey early in the tournament. Brazil has found its form during the final stage, racking up 11 goals in two matches so far. Jones' Belgium is also 4-1-0, with a 1-1- draw against Lasky's defensive-minded Japan. They've also scored 16 goals, and have given up only 4. Belgium has scored 9 goals in their first two final stage matches. Despite the offensive punch on both sides of the pitch, its all going to come down to defense. Belgium has slightly better defenders than Brazil, but Brazil relies on its fast, talented midfielders drifting back to help out the three defenders in the 3-5-2 formation. Belgium plays a conventional 4-4-2, and has to use the blinding speed and finishing ability of Mpenza to catch Brazil on the counter-attack. Should be an epic battle.

NEWS: Belgium, Brazil and Ireland advance to the final four.

Belgium 5, Uruguay 2. Lahman's Uruguay didn't have another upset in them, and Belgium rolled in a lopsided quarter-final match.

Brazil 6, Sweden 2. In a more surprising result, Lahman's Brazil abused Han's powerful Sweden. The game was even more of a mismatch than the score indicates, as Sweden's goals came late in the game after Brazil already had a three goal lead.

Ireland 1, Croatia 0. Lasky's Ireland relied on another strong defensive effort to eliminate Han's Croatia from the tournament. This time, Ireland managed three shots (two on goal) to get the winner -- a pretty volley by Keane off a nice cross from the left wing. Ireland held Croatia to a single shot on goal with relentless midfield tackling and an advantage in the air.

ANALYSIS: Quarter-Final Matchups

Paraguay (Jones) vs. Italy/Korea Winner. TBD.

Ireland (Lasky) vs. Croatia (Han). An interesting match, where goals will be hard to come by. Both teams scored one goal and alllowed none in their round of sixteen match. Both teams play strong defense and don't have massive goal-scoring talent up front. Croatia probably has the slight edge, but it's very slight. If Ireland plays the kind of defense they showed against Spain, Croatia will have a difficult time, indeed. Prediction: Ireland by one goal.

Sweden (Han) vs. Brazil (Lahman). Brazil is the strongest team left in the tournament, on paper, with the possible exception of Italy. Sweden is probably third on the list of the last eight. This is the marquee match of the quarter-finals. Like the England-Brazil tie in the real World Cup, this match has a strong chance of producing the ultimate cup winner. Han has to come up with a strategy to shut down the scoring threat from Brazil and get loose on counter-attack. Brazil has to play its game and keep the Swedish strikers at bay. Prediction: Brazil by two goals.

Uruguay (Lahman) vs. Belgium (Jones). Uruguay is not a terribly talented side, but if they can shut down Mpenza they can win a low-scoring match, as they demonstrated against Argentina. Lahman is opportunistic and, when he has discipline, he's a good defender. Jones has to make sure he can keep Mpenza running around the Uruguayan defense -- despite Sonck's goal against Costa Rica, Belgium doesn't really have a good scoring threat except Wilmots out of midfield. If Lahman gets too aggressive on defense and Mpenza gets his space, this could be 3-0 Belgium. Prediction: Belgium by one goal.

NEWS: Massive upsets see four favorites head home.

Paraguay 2, Germany 2 (2-2 AET) 7-6 PSO. The first match was a barn-burner, with Paraguay's Chilavert making the crucial penalty save after the match had been even through extra time and the first six penalty shots. Jones' Paraguay gets the upset and moves on to face the winner of Italy-Korea; Han's Germany goes home.

Brazil 5, Tunisia 0. This proved to be the mismatch that everyone expected, as Kipnis' Tunisia did not bring their best defensive effort, and Lahman's Brazil opened up in just the way the African side feared. Brazil looks scary at this stage of the tournament.

Sweden 2, Denmark 1 AET. Denmark and Sweden played a tense, tough match, with Han's Sweden grabbing the golden goal in the 112th minute. Sweden scored all the goals in this match, including Denmark's which was credited as an own goal when it deflected in off a defender just before the intermission. Lungberg equalized for Sweden in the 76th minute, and Larsson won it in the second overtime period.

Ireland 1, Spain 0. Lasky's Ireland executed their game plan to the letter, using stifling defense to shut down Kipnis' Spanish attack (Spain only got 3 shots on goal in the game) primarily through aggressive midfield tackling. Ireland made their only chance count -- their only shot in the entire game -- as veteran striker Quinn grabbed a second half goal on the break. Despite losing the possession game for the first 75 minutes (75%-25%), Ireland maintained possession for the last few minutes, running out the clock on the massive upset.

Uruguay 2, Argentina 1. Lahman's Uruguay shocked Lasky's Argentina with a freak goal in the 87th minute as a rocket header from the center of the pitch found the foot of Recoba, who blasted a perfect strike past the Argentine keeper. Argentina could never get its offense cranked up, and Uruguay threated several times on the counter-attack. Argentina flubbed a loose ball in the box to gift an own goal to Uruguay to get them off the mark. Argentina's Lopez came back in the second half to score off a perfect through ball. Both teams appeared content to be playing for extra time when Uruguay got their shock winner.

Croatia 1, USA 0. Han's Croatia got a garbage goal in the first half and survived several good chances from Lasky's USA to get the win. USA's Donovan shot over the bar on a clear break-away, and later pinged the near post with a rocket volley from the right side of the penalty area. Croatia's Balaban threatened to score several times, but Croatia's only goal came from a confused scramble in front of the goal.

Belgium 4, Costa Rica 0. Jones' Belgium showed the offensive punch that Murray's Costa Rica feared, getting Mpenza free for a hat trick in a four goal drubbing of the Central American side. Belgium meets surprise winner Uruguay in the quarter-finals.

ANALYSIS: Final stage match-ups

Korean Bracket

Germany/Han - Paraguay/Jones. Both teams have 2-0-1 records and scored approximately the same number of goals. Germany just made it out of a brutal Group E on goal difference, playing three close matches with top managers like Lahman and Lasky. Paraguay came out of the weaker Group B, where they held Kipnis' mighty Spain close in a 3-2 loss, but only edged Murray and Cibulski's C/D teams by a single goal. Germany has better talent on paper and certainly better defenders, but I think this one is going to be very close.

Italy/Cibulski - Korea/Kipnis. Cibulski was very impressive with Italy (2-1-0) in group play and seems to be hitting stride after a 6-1 demolition of Han's Croatia. Korea had a mixed result in the group stage, crushing Portugal, drawing a surpisingly good USA, and losing to Poland. Korea plays a forward-leaning, attacking style that can leave their slow back line exposed. If Cibulski can defend well, and counter-attack and finish effectively, he has the raw talent to win. Kipnis needs to score early and keep Italy from getting open looks around the penalty area.

Spain/Kipnis - Ireland/Lasky. Spain won every game in a relatively weak Group B and Kipnis is playing very well with them. They are talented throughout their lineup. Ireland barely qualified -- edging Saudi Arabia in the highly competitive Group E in the second tie breaker -- and don't have nearly the talent that Spain does. Ireland won't score a lot of goals, so they have to play fundamental football, trying to get Keane chances around the box while marking aggressively in the midfield to deny Raul the space to get open shots. Spain needs to bring their superior talent to bear, particularly on the offensive end.

USA/Lasky - Croatia/Han. USA emerged from the tough Group D undefeated, scoring five goals and only allowing one. They play well in Lasky's system. They have good forwards with speed and shooting skill. USA's weakness is defense -- they are slow and dangerously unskilled. Croatia had a difficult group stage and was lucky to qualify. While they are the superior side on paper, with a good midfield and attack and several star players, they haven't played to potential in the tournament. Slight edge to USA.

Japanese Bracket

Denmark/Kipnis - Sweden/Han. Denmark rolled through a weak Group A winning every match and racking up an impressive ten goals for and zero goals against -- the best group stage record of any team in the tournament. Denmark is not a super-talented side, but they play well with what they've got. Sweden, on the other hand, came out of the Group of Death intact -- beating Jones' Nigeria, drawing England, and losing to Lasky's Argentina. They are faster and considerably more talented than Denmark, particularly in attack, but Han has had problems with Kipnis in the past (they did not play in this tournament). Edge to Kipnis, but Han could surprise us.

Brazil/Lahman - Tunisia/Kipnis. Brazil won the relatively weak Group C and never really played to potential. They are hugely talented at every conceivable position. If they play even marginally well, this should be a cakewalk. Tunisia was the runner-up in the extremely weak Group H, where they upset Japan and Russia and lost to eventual group-winner Belgium. Tunisia will have a hard time scoring goals -- they have to play tenacious defense against the Brazilian onslaught, and hope for a 1-0 game or 1-1 extra-time. If Brazil opens up, watch out.

Argentina/Lasky - Uruguay/Lahman. Argentina went undefeated in the strong Group of Death, and are insanely talented at all positions. They are amazing finishers -- Batistuta can score from anywhere. Uruguay was the runner-up in the weak Group A, but Lahman has started playing to potential so they could be dangerous if they can keep Argentina away from the goal and Recoba can get loose in front of goal. Advantage Argentina.

Belgium/Jones - Costa Rica/Murray. Belgium won the weak Group H, but was not terribly impressive, except for the 4-0 win over Russia. In the other matches, they beat Tunisia by a goal, and drew Japan. Costa Rica qualified behind Brazil on the last day of group play, and registered an impressive win over Turkey en route, only losing to Brazil by one goal. On paper Belgium is the superior side, and if Mpenza gets off the mark, Costa Rica can't keep up. But in a two or three goal game, Costa Rica has a chance, and Murray is playing very well.

NEWS: Group stage completed -- Costa Rica squeaks into the final round.

Costa Rica 2, China 1. Murray's Costa Rica scored a dramatic 87th minute goal to claim victory over Hamilton's China and book a date with Jones' Belgium in the second round. Costa Rica's victory eliminated Han's Turkey and prevents Han from getting an unprecedented four teams into the second round.

NEWS: Down to one spot.

Saudi Arabia 1, Cameroon 0. Lahman's Saudi Arabia made a strong bid for a second round slot with a narrow win over Hamilton's Cameroon. The winning margin was not enough to over come Lasky's Ireland for first place in Group E on goal difference, so Ireland clinches its second round position.

Germany 3, Cameroon 1. Han's Germany got the result it needed to vault over Ireland and Saudi Arabia and claim first place in Group E. The two goal win eliminates Saudi Arabia.

Turkey 3, China 0. Han's Turkey handed Hamilton his third loss of the day, thumping China by three goals. It was a key victory for Turkey, which had to win by more than one goal to take the goal difference advantage over Group C rival Costa Rica. Now, Costa Rica has to win its last match with China -- a draw will no longer by good enough.

COMMENTARY: Scouting Report.

It goes without saying that the second round is going to be highly competitive. Many of us are peaking in skill at just the right time. Lahman has hit stride, Cibulski is playing really well with Italy, while Han, Lasky, Kipnis and Jones have good teams and know how to play them. Murray has played so well lately that it would be a shame if he couldn't get Costa Rica into the final sixteen.

Given that, I think that match-ups are going to be particularly important in the elimination phase of the tournament. For that reason, I have been scouting the formations and line-ups -- at least as they existed on Friday. To save everyone the trouble of having to do this piecemeal themselves, I'm posting it here as a work in progress. Obviously, adjustments will be made -- I know I have learned a few things I need to adjust from doing this scouting report -- so don't expect your opponent's team on the pitch to exactly match what I discovered.

NEWS: Bubble bursts for Mexico and Senegal.

Senegal 1, Uruguay 1. Lahman's Uruguay got the draw they needed to advance behind Denmark out of Group A, just edging France for the spot 4 points to 3. The draw elimintated Cibulski's Senegal. Uruguay will meet Lasky's Argentina in the round of sixteen.

Italy 2, Mexico 0. Cibulski's Italy finished their group stage run unbeaten with a convincing win over Murray's Mexico. Italy's win eliminates Mexico and hands the runner-up qualifying spot from Group G to Han's Croatia, who will face Lasky's USA in the next round.

ANALYSIS: Teams that have either clinched, or have chance to advance to second round.

Amazingly, all eight managers either have teams already into the second round, or still have chances for advancement. Eleven teams are in; another eleven teams are contesting the final five spots. Bubble teams are listed in italics below:

Kipnis -- Denmark (A1), Spain (B1), Korea (D2), Tunisia (H2)
Lasky -- Argentina (F1), USA (D1), Ireland (E1/E2)
Jones -- Belgium (H1), Paraguay (B2)
Han -- Sweden (F2), Germany (E1/E2), Croatia (G2), Turkey (C2)
Lahman -- Brazil (C1), Uruguay (A2), Saudi Arabia (E1/E2)
Cibulski -- Italy (G1), Senegal (A2)
Murray -- Mexico (G2), Costa Rica (C2)
Hamilton -- China (C2), Cameroon (E1/E2)

****UPDATE*****6/21/02

Mexico and Senegal are history. The new bubble situation looks like this:

Kipnis -- Denmark (A1), Spain (B1), Korea (D2), Tunisia (H2)
Lasky -- Argentina (F1), USA (D1), Ireland (E1/E2)
Jones -- Belgium (H1), Paraguay (B2)
Han -- Sweden (F2), Croatia (G2), Germany (E1/E2), Turkey (C2)
Lahman -- Brazil (C1), Uruguay (A2), Saudi Arabia (E1/E2)
Cibulski -- Italy (G1)
Hamilton -- China (C2), Cameroon (E1/E2)
Murray -- Costa Rica (C2)

ANALYSIS: Seven matches remaining; six are deciders.

Other than the symbolic Slovenia vs. South Africa match in Group B, every one of the remaining matches will effect qualification. Here's the rundown:

Senegal (Cibulski) vs. Uruguay (Lahman). Uruguay wins or draws and they advance. Senegal wins and they advance. At stake: a second round match with Lasky's Argentina.

China (Hamilton) vs. Costa Rica (Murray) & Turkey (Han) vs. China (Hamilton). If Costa Rica beats China, Costa Rica advances regardless of the outcome of the Turkey-China match. If China beats both Costa Rica and Turkey, China advances. If Turkey beats China and China beats Costa Rica, Turkey advances. If Turkey beats China and China draws Costa Rica, it will come down to goal difference and total goals between Costa Rica and Turkey. If both matches end in draws, Costa Rica advances. At stake: a second round match with Jones' Belgium.

Cameroon (Hamilton) vs. Saudi Arabia (Lahman) & Cameroon (Hamilton) vs. Germany (Han). If Cameroon wins both, they will advance with Ireland (Lasky). If Cameroon draw one match and win the other, they could still advance behind Ireland on goal difference/total goals over the team they draw with. If Saudi Arabia beats Cameroon and Germany loses or draws, then Saudi Arabia and Ireland advance. If Germany wins and Saudi Arabia loses or draws, then Germany and Ireland advance. If both Saudi Arabia and Germany defeat Cameroon, we'll have a three-way tie to be broken by goal difference, total goals, and head-to-head play. If both Saudi Arabia and Germany draw with Cameroon, the team that scores the most goals in their draw will advance -- if that's even then Germany will advance because they beat Saudi Arabia in the head-to-head match. At stake: group winner gets Jones' Paraguay; runner-up gets Kipnis' Spain.

Mexico (Murray) vs. Italy (Cibulski). If Mexico wins, they advance behind Italy. If Italy wins or draws, then Croatia (Han) advances behind Italy. At stake: second round match with Lasky's USA.

NEWS: Group C comes down to the last matches, too.

Costa Rica 2, Turkey 1. In a well-played, tense match Murray's Costa Rica defeated Han's Turkey with a late goal. Costa Rica opened the scoring, but Turkey fought back with a brilliant goal squeezed in at the near post after the striker dribbled through the Costa Rican defense. The game remained even until the Costa Rica got the winner ten minutes from time. With the win, Costa Rica moves into the runner-up spot in the group. Turkey and Costa Rica each have a match remaining against Hamilton's China.

COMMENTARY: Ranking the managers ... how good is Kipnis, really?

Kipnis strolled through the group stage of the tournament racking up a 9-1-2 record with a +23 goal difference. By comparison, Lasky-Jones-Lahman-Han will finish with respectable winning records and mostly positive goal differences, while Cibulski-Murray-Hamilton had losing campaigns. Kipnis will place 4 teams in the final stage, versus 2 to 4 for Han, 2 or 3 for Lasky & Lahman, 2 for Jones, and 1 or 2 for Cibulski. Is Kipnis' totally dominant group stage performance a good predictor of his performance in the final stage?

Well, no. Here's why: Kipnis did incredibly well against weak managers, but not as well against strong ones. In fact, the statistics suggest that Lasky did better than Kipnis in matches against top managers. And, the elimination phase of the tournament will mostly feature top managers.

I define "top managers" as managers with a >1.00 "efficiency rating" -- meaning that these managers generated 1 point or better per match played. Five of the eight managers meet this criterion: Kipnis (2.33), Lasky (1.83), Lahman (1.70 from 10 matches), Jones (1.58), and Han (1.33 from 9 matches). Cibulski could just squeak into this group in the unlikely event he gets two wins and a draw in his last three matches. If you have better than 1.00 efficiency rating in this tournament, you are definitely getting some teams into the second round. [In this tournament, it's about 1.7 times the efficiency rating to get number of qualified teams -- so to get 2 of your teams in you need about 14 points.]

Let's further define "competitive matches" as matches vs. top managers. If we look at the efficiency ratings just from these competitive matches, it presents a very different picture: Lasky (1.75 from 8 competitive matches), Kipnis (1.67 from 6), Han (1.33 from 6), Lahman (1.17 from 6). Jones had a sub-1.00 rating (0.83 from 6), and Cibulski wasn't too far off (0.63 from 8, which he could improve to a 0.89 from 9 with a win in the upcoming Senegal-Uruguay match). So, Lasky had more matches against top managers than Kipnis (8 vs. 6), and he did better in them. Kipnis was 3-1-2 in these matches, while Lasky was 4-2-2.

But what about that +23 goal differential? Well, that also deserves a closer look. Let's define any game decided by two goals or more as a "big win" or "big loss", as the case may be. This makes sense -- a one goal game is a nail-biter with a chance for a fluke equalizer. Winning by more than two goals is gravy, as you've already put the nail in the coffin. Only 14 of the 40 matches played so far in the tournament were decided by 2 or more goals.

Kipnis had an impressive 6 big wins in his 12 matches (and one big loss). Lasky was a distant second, with 3 big wins and no big losses. Jones and Lahman each had two big wins and one big loss. Cibulski was the only other manager to get a big win. But how many of these big wins came in competitive matches? The answer: only 1 for Kipnis (Denmark 5:0 Uruguay) -- while Lasky had 2 (Argentina 3:0 Nigeria; Argentina 3:0 Sweden).

In his other 5 big wins agaist the bottom of the managers' table, Kipnis racked up a stunning +18 goal difference. So he was only +5 in goal difference in the other 7 matches, 6 of which were his competitive matches. If you take out his one big win in a competitive match -- Denmark-Uruguay -- he was a very mediocre +0 in goal difference in the other 5 matches against top managers and one against Cibulski, who's on the cusp (and he was an unimpressive -1 if you take out Cibulski and just count the top managers; an earthly +4 in the 6 competitive matches including his big win over Lahman).

So, Kipnis is damn good, but he's definitely not the juggernaut his group stage record would suggest.

NEWS: Group A qualifier still up for grabs; France eliminated.

Uruguay 4, France 1. On the back of a stunning hat trick by Recoba, Lahman's Uruguay turned Group A on its head with a convincing victory over Murray's France. The first half played evenly, with Recoba opening the scoring after 20 minutes, followed by a terrific Henry equalizer -- catching the keeper off his line, the French striker nailed one from well outside the penalty area -- only to see Uruguay dominate the second half. Uruguay's three goal victory margin is incredibly important -- it mathematically eliminates France from the tournament on goal difference.

The Uruguay win means that the Group A runner-up (who will face Lasky's Argentina in the second round) will be decided in the last match -- Uruguay vs. Senegal. If Uruguay wins or draws, they qualify. Senegal can qualify with a win.

NEWS: Some uncertainties resolved.

Spain 2, South Africa 0. Murray's South Africa played bravely against the Kipnis' Spain, but despite showing some excellent defense they couldn't finish enough of their chances. So, South Africa is eliminated and Paraguay takes the runner-up spot from Group B.

Croatia 2, Mexico 1. Murray's Mexico played good defense and showed some good finishing in the first half, but Han's Croatia came from behind to take the match. Croatia's win eliminates Ecuador and guaranties Italy the first place spot in Group G, but leaves the final resolution of the group to the match between Mexico and Italy. If Italy wins or draws, Croatia advances behind Italy. If Mexico wins, Mexico advances behind Italy.

Argentina 3, Sweden 0. Lasky's Argentina showed that they can play at both ends of the pitch in a thoroughly dominant performance against Han's talented Sweden. The speedy Argentine defenders shut down every break-away by Sweden's equally fast star forwards, while Batistuta picked apart the Swedish defense for two of Argentina's three goals. With the win Argentina finishes at the top of the table in Group F, while runner-up Sweden heads off to a difficult second round match with Kipnis' Denmark -- the team with the best group stage record.

ANALYSIS: Twelve matches remaining in group play. Here are the possibilities ...

Group A: Uruguay (Lahman) has two matches remaining, one with Senegal (Cibulski) and one with France (Murray). The battle is for second place in the group, as Denmark (Kipnis) has already clinched first place. If France wins its match with Uruguay, France qualifies. If Lahman wins both matches, Uruguay qualifies. If Uruguay beats France and loses to Senegal, Senegal qualifies. If France and Uruguay draw, Uruguay will have to beat Senegal by three goals to qualify.

Group B: South Africa (Murray) has two matches remaining, one with Spain (Kipnis) and one with Slovenia (Cibulski). South Africa's only chance to qualify is to win both matches, and further to win one of them by at least two goals (or they can grab two one-goal wins and score a total of seven goals in the two matches). In that case, Paraguay (Jones), Spain and South Africa will each finish with two wins and a loss, and the group will be decided on goal difference and total goals scored -- which favors Spain and South Africa. Any other result means Spain and Paraguay will finish the group one-two.

Group C: There are three matches remaining in this group -- Turkey (Han), Costa Rica (Murray) and China (Hamilton) all play each other. Brazil (Lahman) has clinched a second round spot and will win the group if Turkey fails to win both remaining matches by a combined 3 goals (or Turkey can win both by one goal each and score a total of 5 goals in the two matches). This one is still wide open and even lowly China still has a shot at a second round spot.

Group E: Cameroon (Hamilton) has two matches remaining, one with Germany (Han) and one with Saudi Arabia (Lahman). This group is by far the tightest coming into the last matches. Ireland (Lasky) has finished its group matches and sits on top of the table with 6 points, a +1 goal difference and 4 total goals. Both Germany and Saudi Arabia have identical records after two matches -- 3 points, 0 goal difference and 2 total goals. So, if Cameroon wins both remaining matches, they'll clinch at least second place in the group, needing a +3 goal difference in these matches to win the group outright. If Cameroon splits in the last two matches, the team that beats them will go through (Germany needs to win 2-0 or 3-1, at least, to overcome Ireland and win the group; Saudi Arabia only needs to win 2-1). If Cameroon loses both games, then Ireland, Germany and Saudi will finish with 6 points and it will come down to goal difference and goals scored. It's possible, in this scenario, that Ireland can fail to qualify.

Group F: The Group of Death is already decided -- both Argentina and Sweden will advance. But they will play to see who wins the group and gets to avoid playing the dangerous Denmark (Kipnis) in the first knock-out stage match. Argentina wins the group with either a win or a draw; Sweden needs to win the match to win the group.

Group G: Mexico (Murray) has two matches remaining, one with Italy (Cibulski) and one with Croatia (Han). Italy only needs a draw against Mexico to win the group (theoretically, Mexico could beat Croatia by 6 goals and still win the group, but that's probably not realistic). If Mexico wins both matches, they win the group and Italy is the runner-up. If Mexico loses both matches, Italy wins the group and Croatia is runner-up. If Croatia wins and Italy loses, Italy will still win the group and Croatia will be runner-up. If Italy wins and Croatia draws, Italy wins the group and Ecuador (Jones) is the runner-up. If Mexico draws both matches, then they have to score 4 goals to grab the runner-up spot behind Italy. If they score 2 goals, Ecuador advances; if they score 3, we flip a coin to decide between Mexico and Ecuador.

COMMENTARY: Preview of the second phase of the tournament.

16 teams make the second phase, two from each first stage group. This year, there is a "Korean" bracket of 8 teams and a "Japanese" bracket of 8; each will supply a finalist. Within each regional bracket, there are two sub-brackets of four teams each -- akin to the first phase groups. Each of these sub-brackets will supply a semi-finalist. Let's break down the possibilities:

Korean Bracket

Q1: This grouping includes Paraguay (Jones), Italy (Cibulski), Korea (Kipnis) and the Group E winner (Ireland, Germany or Saudi Arabia). Italy vs. Korea will be a great match -- as it was in the real World Cup. Paraguay will hope for Saudi Arabia or Ireland rather than Han's talented Germany. This grouping should be very competitive and any of the ultimate quarter-final match-ups will be excellent.
Dream QF: Italy-Germany, or the exact rematch of last tournament's semi-final, Korea-Paraguay

Q2: This grouping is comprised of Spain (Kipnis), USA (Lasky), who will win their groups, joined by the Group E runner-up (again Ireland, Germany or Saudi) and the Group G runner-up (Ecuador, Mexico, or Croatia). Spain gets the tougher Group E side, while USA gets the weaker Group G side. This grouping is made for Spain to dominate, and any other result would have to be considered an upset.
Dream QF: Spain-USA

Japanese Bracket

Q3: This grouping includes Denmark (Kipnis), Tunisia (Kipnis), the Group of Death runner-up -- Sweden (Han) or Argentina (Lasky) -- and the Group C winner -- almost certainly Brazil (Lahman) but possibly Turkey (Han). With the exception of Tunisia (who is playing beyond its depth), this looks like the toughest grouping with Denmark playing the Group of Death team and Brazil getting Tunisia.
Dream QF: Denmark-Brazil

Q4: The final grouping is the most uncertain at this point, with only Belgium (Jones) having clinched. They will probably face Turkey (Han). In the other match, either Argentina (Lasky) or Sweden (Han) will play the Group A runner-up, which could be France, Uruguay or even Senegal.
Dream QF: Belgium-Argentina

NEWS: More first round action.

Brazil 2, Costa Rica 1. Murray's Costa Rica made a heartbreaking keeper's error in the last minutes of the match, handing Brazil an ill-deserved goal and the match. Costa Rica played brilliantly and deserved the point for the draw. The win completes Brazil's group stage with 7 points and clinches a place in the second round.

Mexico 0, Ecuador 0. Jones' Ecuador pulled off another draw -- their third of the group stage -- and put themselves in position to advance to the next round pending the resolution of Murray's Mexico's last two matches. If Mexico can win either the match against Italy or Croatia, they will eliminate the over-achieving Ecuadorians.

Paraguay 2, South Africa 1. Jones' Paraguay finished their group phase run with a win over Murray's South Africa. Paraguay finishes with six points and is guaranteed the runner-up spot in Group B unless Murray's South Africa can beat Spain and Slovenia in the last two matches.

Denmark 3, France 0. Kipnis' powerful Denmark smacked Murray's France and ends its Group A campaign with the maximum 9 points and a scary +10 goal difference -- scoring 10 goals and recording three consecutive clean sheets. Despite this impressive performance, Denmark will have a monumental task to get to the final -- likely having to go through some combination of Sweden (Han), Brazil (Lahman) and Argentina (Lasky) just to get to the final match.

NEWS: Group D finish.

Poland 4, Korea 2. Lahman's Poland got themselves back into contention with a surprise win over Kipnis' Korea. The win left Poland only a point behind Korea with a game in hand against Portugal. However, Korea's advantage on goal difference meant that Poland had to win this last game.

Portugal 1, Poland 1. Hamilton's Portugal opened strongly in the first half with a well-taken goal, and defended well until very late in the match, effectively ending Lahman's chances to get Poland through to the second round. Lahman's late equalizer was too little, too late and Kipnis Korea joins Lasky's USA in the next round.

NEWS: Wide-open Group E

Saudi Arabia 2, Ireland 1. Lahman's Saudis opened the scoring in the first half, but Lasky's Irish equalized before the intermission. In the second half, Saudi got a shock second goal ten minutes from time, and Ireland could not penetrate the Saudi defense to score a late equalizer. The win puts Lahman in position to challenge the expected group winners Germany and Ireland for a spot in the second phase.

Ireland 2, Germany 1. Lasky's Ireland bounced back from the loss to Saudi Arabia to grab a well-deserved win against Han's tough Germans.

With two matches to play, each team has one loss. The Irish have finished with six points and a plus one goal difference. Han's Germany and Lahman's Saudi Arabia each have a game to play with Cameroon and, assuming they can win, will rely on goal difference to determine final placement. Hamilton's Cameroon is still in position to win two in a row and take the group. This group will truly be decided on the last day of first round play.

NEWS: Five key matches in the book.

Germany 1, Saudi Arabia 0. Han's Germany wins a squeaker against Lahman's Saudi Arabia. The win sends Germany to the top of the table in Group E and sets up the Ireland v. Germany match as the decider in this Group.

Italy 6, Croatia 1. Cibulski's Italians showed their quality, absolutely demolishing Han's Croatians and equaling the mark for most goals scored in a tournament match. The win puts Italy in prime position to advance with 4 points in two games. All of the Group G teams have a game in hand with Murray's Mexico -- Italy only needs a draw to advance.

Paraguay 2, Slovenia 1. Jones' Paraguay picked up three crucial points in a one goal victory over Cibulski's Slovenia. The win puts Paraguay right behind Spain in Group B. As with Group G, each of the Group B teams has a game in hand with Murray -- in this case with South Africa.

Nigeria 2, England 0. Jones' Nigeria rose to the moment and knocked Hamilton's England out of the tournament. After collecting two draws in the first two matches, a win by England would have put them in prime position to advance. However, Nigeria played the spoiler's role and sets up a tremendous battle for the Group of Death in the final match between Sweden and Argentina, who stand even with 4 points. Both teams are sure to advance, but both want to avoid a second round match with Kipnis' Denmark, who looks likely to win Group A.

Italy 1, Ecuador 1. Jones' scrappy Ecuador played group favorite Italy to a 1-1 draw. It was the second consecutive draw for Ecuador, who could book a spot in the second round with a win over Mexico.

NEWS: Big draws.

Our sixth and seventh draws of the tournament -- out of 23 matches. Compare that with the last JAMDAT tournament, where we had only one draw in a competitive match in the entire group stage. In the real World Cup, they have had ten draws in 32 matches -- roughly the same percentage as in our tournament.

Turkey 1, Brazil 1. Han's Turkey held Lahman's Brazil to a draw. The talented South American side, who, under Lahman's management are expected to go far in the tournament, have failed to generate much offense in their first two matches. Meanwhile, Han takes a crucial point for Turkey -- with matches left against minnows China and Costa Rica, Turkey is in prime position to advance.

Ecuador 2, Croatia 2. Jones' lowly Ecuador showed some unexpected offensive power in a 2-2 draw with Han's favored Croatia. It was a big point for Ecuador against the bronze medalists from the France '98 World Cup.

NEWS: New, improved Hamilton.

Brazil 2, China 1. Hamilton's China played Lahman's mighty Brazil even for 90 minutes, before giving up a heartbreaking winner to Rivaldo in injury time. Emerson opened the scoring for Brazil at the half-hour mark, but the Chinese hung tough and grabbed an excellent equalizer just after the intermission. It looked like a sure draw after China survived a late Brazil onslaught around goal, and China richly deserved a point for their efforts but went away empty-handed.

England 1, Argentina 1. Hamilton's England survived a shot barrage from Lasky's Argentina to hang on to a draw in the Group F match. Argentina controlled the run of play throughout the game, failing to finish several excellent chances inside the box. The draw moves Argentina to the top of the table over Han's Sweden on goal difference, and sets up a dramatic Argentina v. Sweden match to decide the group. The draw also leaves England in an excellent position to qualify with a win over Jones' Nigeria.

ANALYSIS: Our cup vs. the real cup

Time to ask the inevitable question -- given the dynamics of our tournament, how well has EA's product replicated the atmosphere of the real World Cup? I'd have to say, pretty damn well. Despite the fact that EA doesn't really position FIFA as a simulation, the results of our tournament predicted in many ways the dynamics of the real World Cup.

I think there are three big trends in the real World Cup. First has to be the vulnerability of some of the elite teams (particularly from Europe) to teams from lesser confederations. The Africans have done well -- Senegal beat France and drew Denmark, Nigeria held Argentina to 1-0, and Cameroon drew Ireland and beat Saudi. The North Americans have kicked butt -- USA beat up on Portugal, Mexico beat France '98 bronze medalist Croatia, and Costa Rica beat China. Japan and Korea have four points from two games. Our tournament has definitely mirrored this trend. USA and Korea are top of table in Group D -- just like in the real tournament. Instead of Senegal, Tunisia is playing the role of upstart African side in our tournament (although they failed to beat the UEFA team, Belgium).

The second big trend is the quality of attacking football being played in the real tournament. The goals per game average is currently around 2.6 -- compared with 2.7 in our tournament. While that's down from our last tournament because they made it harder to score goals, the game is still rewarding an attacking style that creates quality chances. In the real tournament, through 21 games, they've had 54 goals (and 54 points taken). Through 19 games, we've had 52 goals (netting 53 points). That's uncanny.

The third trend is how scary the deep, well-organized, highly-talented elite teams look in the real tournament. Italy, Argentina, and Spain look great, and to a lesser extent, so do Sweden, Germany and Denmark. In our tournament, a similar set of teams is challenging for qualification to the next round. And the similarities are amazing. Look at Group F -- the group with the most star players and elite teams -- it looks almost identical to ours. Sweden drew England in both (1-1 vs. 2-2 in ours), Argentina beat Nigeria in both (1-0 vs. 3-0 in ours), and Sweden beat Nigeria 2-1 in both tournaments.

NEWS: USA moves to the top of Group D.

USA 3, Portugal 0. USA got a first half goal from Donovan and two second half goals from Reyna on their way to an easy win over Hamilton's Portugal. USA dominated the run of play, keeping the Portuguese on defense for most of the match. Portugal's outstanding strikers failed to get good shots on goal. The win clinches at least a runner-up finish for USA, who can claim the top spot if Poland/Lahman can defeat or draw Korea/Kipnis.

USA 1, Poland 0. Lasky's USA and Lahman's Poland played a tight, scoreless match until Donovan broke free late in the second half to score the winner.

NEWS: Belgium comes out on top in Group H.

Belgium 4, Russia 0. Jones' Belgium unleashed a flurry of goals late in the second half to defeat Cibulski's Russia and clinch first place in Group H. Mpenza opened the scoring in the first half, but Russia held the game close until the 68th minute, when Wilmots struck the first goal of his eventual second half hat trick. Russia failed to score in their third straight match.

NEWS: Kipnis rolls in freak match.

Korea 5, Portugal 0. Continuing his domination of the group stage of the tournament, Kipnis' Korea slaughtered Hamilton's favored Portugual in a match where Portugal received seven bookings and finished the match with nine men on the field. Korea did not receive a single booking in the match despite causing an injury to a Portuguese player with a hard tackle. The win sends Korea to the top of the table in Group D with 4 points from two matches, and gives the Koreans a decisive edge over Lasky's USA on goal difference.

NEWS: All four Group F teams were in action today.

England 2, Sweden 2. Hamilton proved that he can score goals on the way to a well-played draw with Han's Sweden. The draw puts England in position to qualify on goal difference with a win over Nigeria. It also puts pressure on Sweden to play well in their final match with Argentina -- a bad loss combined with an English victory over Nigeria could send the Swedes packing.

Argentina 3, Nigeria 0. A Battistuta hat-trick and some tough, well-organized defense allowed Lasky's talented Argentina an easy win over Jones' Nigeria. Argentina looked very strong on both ends of the pitch, dominating the run of play. Nigeria only got a couple of chances on goal in the match. The loss ends Nigeria's chance to escape this Group of Death.

NEWS: Three important Group H matches -- and the goal drought continues. Only seven goals have been scored by these weak teams in five matches.

Tunisia 1, Russia 0. Kipnis' surprising African side pulled off another shocker, squeaking by Cibulski's favored Russians by the narrowest of margins. The Russians played well, but couldn't finish their chances and gave up most of the loose balls and headers to the more aggressive Tunisians. The victory puts Tunisia in the driver's seat for an unexpected trip to the second round.

Japan 0, Russia 0. Lasky's Japanese and Cibulski's Russians continued their pathetic offensive performances with a dreary goalless draw. Russia missed a couple of good chances wide of the goal, while Japan's one excellent one-on-one with the Russian keeper ended in a routine save. The draw puts both teams in serious jeopardy of missing the second round -- the only chance for one to qualify requires both to win upcoming matches with Belgium.

Japan 1, Belgium 1. In the biggest surprise of the day, Lasky's Japan held Jones' Belgium to a low-scoring draw. In the first half, the Japanese scored one of the best goals of the tournament so far -- a perfect free kick from the middle of the pitch hit Nakata open at the edge of the penalty area, who flicked a bicycle kick past a stunned Belgian keeper. Japan shut down Belgium's star striker Mpenza well into the second half, but eventually the stronger Belgians got a midfielder through the Japanese defense for a goal. Belgium ended any hope of a comeback when they knocked Nakata out of the match with an injury late in the second half. The result eliminates both Japan and Russia's chances to go to the second round.

ANALYSIS: Tight, low scoring matches

One of the most notable differences between this tournament and the last one is the low scoring this time around. Through the first ten matches, we are averaging only 2.9 goals per game – and that includes two Kipnis blowouts in which eleven goals were scored. In the other eight matches, we averaged only 2.3 goals per game.

By comparison, during the group stage of the last tournament, we averaged almost 3.5 goals per game – and that includes seven goalless draws (out of 48 matches) that resulted from forfeits – so nearly 4.1 goals per game in the completed matches.

In addition, seven of the first ten matches have been decided by one goal or less. These have been really exciting, edge-of-your-seat football matches.

This can be explained in part by the quality of competition – with only the top eight managers in this tournament we have less punking of weak managers. But it can also be attributed to the fundamental changes that EA made in the game that eliminated a lot of the easy goal scoring off bicycle kicks, etc.

NEWS: With Kipnis poised to leave for his honeymoon, all six of today’s matches featured Adam’s teams. He ended the day an impressive 4-1-1, although in fairness only one of the victories can really be considered an upset.

Denmark 2, Senegal 0. Despite another good defensive effort by Cibulski’s African side, Kipnis’ Danes proved stronger in this Group A match. Two first half goals by Denmark sealed the victory.

USA 1, Korea 1. Lasky’s USA and Kipnis’ Korea played to an uneventful draw. USA got out to an early lead when Wolff’s volley from a throw-in ricocheted in off the near post. In the second half, the Koreans fought back and equalized after dominating the run of play.

Tunisia 1, Japan 0. Kipnis’ African side upset Lasky’s co-hosts in a tight Group H match. The Japanese were never able to generate much offense, while the Tunisians took advantage of Japan’s slow back line to grab a second half winner.

Spain 3, Paraguay 2. After a stunning first half hat-trick by the amazing Raul, Jones’ Paraguay clamped down on Kipnis’ Spaniards with good defense and a more organized offensive effort. In the second half, Paraguay clawed back into the match with two pretty goals. But Paraguay’s brave comeback was too late to get the much-deserved equalizer, and Spain took home the three points.

Belgium 2, Tunisia 1. Jones got his revenge in this Group H match, dealing Kipnis his only loss of the day. Belgium jumped out to a 2-0 lead at the half as Mpenza put two beautiful goals past the Tunisian keeper. Belgium slacked off a bit in the second half, allowing Tunisia to get back into the game with a goal. Despite a good try by Kipnis to snag a late equalizer, Belgium proved the better side and held on for the win.

Spain 6, Slovenia 0. Cibulski’s Slovenians were clearly outmatched by the impressive Spaniards, who racked up nine goals in their first two matches. Spain came out strong, scoring five of their six goals in the first half, and cruised to victory in the most one-sided game in the tournament thus far. With the victory, Spain is virtually assured of qualifying for the elimination phase of the tournament.

NEWS: The tournament got off to an exciting start, with three nail-biters and one old-fashioned blow out.

France 1, Senegal 0. The defending World Cup champions and the African Nations Cup runners-up opened the tournament with a tough defensive struggle. It took a late second-half strike by Thierry Henry to give Murray’s France a narrow 1-0 victory over Cibulski’s surprising Senegal.

Ireland 1, Cameroon 0. Minard’s African side gave up a 75th minute goal to Lasky’s Ireland, after grinding out what looked to be a scoreless draw. It was a big win for Ireland in the very difficult Group E.

Sweden 2, Nigeria 1. Both teams were tentative in the opening 45 minutes, but defending JAMDAT champion Jones got his Nigerian star Kanu free after the break and put the Eagles up 1-0. Sweden fought back, with Han using the speed of his strikers to out-run the Nigerian defense and quickly score the equalizer. Sweden's aggressive play turned the tide of the match and led to the winning goal later in the game.

Denmark 5, Uruguay 0. Lahman showed little evidence of the defensive form that carried him to the finals of the last tournament as Kipnis’ Denmark blasted Uruguay. Uruguayan star Recoba failed to get touches on offense and could only manage a few shots on goal. At the other end of the pitch, Uruguay's gambling defense consistently allowed the Danish forwards to get one-on-one opportunities against the keeper. Denmark showed some strong finishing -- three different players scored goals in the route.

ANALYSIS: Star Players

One of the major changes to the game is the addition of star players. Although we are playing this tournament with the arcade-style star player features turned off (flaming balls and all), the concept is still baked in to the fabric of the game – EA wanted to make the stars really shine in the World Cup atmosphere – so it’s worth taking a look at the stars as a proxy for assessing team strength.

The game seems to define star players as having a “7” rating in at least one key attribute category. However, several players who meet this criterion are not identified as stars – for example Desailly on France has 7’s for headers and tackling but no star, while Argentina’s star-less Crespo has one for headers.

When setting up your starting line-ups, pay close attention to the bench – several teams have star players as substitutes! Nakata on Japan, Fiore on Italy, Nuno Gomes on Portugal, Asamoah on Germany, and Battistuta on Argentina are all examples of bench-sitting stars.

Who are the most star-packed teams in the tournament? That would be France, Argentina, England and Italy – all of which have five star players. France actually has three other players who have 7-rated attributes, Argentina, England and Italy have one each. Brazil and Spain each have four star players, while Germany, Sweden and Portugal each have three. A number of teams – Belgium, Denmark, Ireland and Croatia among them – have two stars and most of the rest of the teams have at least one – although some of the weaker teams, like China, don’t have any.

Who are the super-star players? There are nine players in the game with 7 ratings in three attribute categories, and they might surprise you. They include: Zidane and Henry (France), Veron (Argentina), Raul (Spain), Totti (Italy), Ronaldo and Rivaldo (Brazil), Luis Figo (Portugal) and Larsson (Sweden).

And if you needed any more proof that Group F really was the Group of Death, just check out the star players present in that group. These four teams have fifteen star players among them!

COMMENTARY: Group Stage Preview

This looks to be an insanely competitive tournament, now that we have narrowed the field to the top eight managers and tightened up the team draft balance. Here’s my preview based on the draft.

Group A: Clearly France/Murray and Denmark/Kipnis are the most talented of these teams. France has an awesome array of star players and near-star players. Both Uruguay/Lahman and Senegal/Cibulski are going to struggle to score enough goals to keep up with the offensive power of the favorites. Predicted Qualifiers: Denmark-France, with Uruguay a possible dark horse for the second spot. Decisive Match: France vs. Uruguay – can Murray keep Lahman from snatching a qualifying spot from this group?

Group B: Spain/Kipnis is the class of this group – with all the talent available on the Spanish side, it would take a series of massive upsets for Kipnis not to qualify. The battle for second place is a lot more interesting. Paraguay/Jones has to be favored (Jones won the last tournament with Paraguay), but lacks any depth of talent beyond the great striker Santa Cruz. Slovenia/Cibulski and South Africa/Murray are really lacking in talent. Predicted Qualifiers: Spain-Paraguay. Decisive Match: Paraguay vs. Slovenia – if Cibulski can sneak a win or a draw, he might be able to qualify on goal difference.

Group C: Like Group B, there is one clear favorite, one likely runner-up, and two also-rans. Brazil/Lahman has few obstacles to qualification from this weak group. Only Turkey/Han can possible challenge him for the top of the table here. Costa Rica/Murray is not a bad side, but not in the same league as the favorites. China/Hamilton will be lucky to score a goal. Predicted Qualifiers: Brazil-Turkey. Decisive Match: Brazil vs. Turkey – can Han beat Lahman to finish first and get the coveted second round draw against the incredibly weak Group H runner-up?

Group D: This should be one of the more competitive groups in the first round. Portugal/Hamilton has more star players than the rest of this group combined, so this group is theirs to lose. Minard will have to step up his game to qualify from here. USA/Lasky, Korea/Kipnis, and Poland/Lahman are all good sides in the hands of skilled managers. All three of those teams have decent defense, good speed, and at least one good striker. Predicted Qualifiers: USA-Korea. Decisive Match: Portugal vs. Korea – Korea is the weakest team in the group on paper, so can Minard and his “Golden Generation” put them away?

Group E: Another well-balanced group, with Germany/Han and Ireland/Lasky certainly the favorites. The Germans are not a great side, but have enough stars for Han to do some real damage. The Irish have a star striker and star defender. Cameroon/Hamilton is the wild-card in this group – not enough talent to challenge Germany, but well matched against Ireland. Saudi Arabia/Lahman could do some damage in close games. Predicted Qualifiers: Germany-Ireland. Decisive Match: Ireland vs. Cameroon – if Lasky can win, it will put extra pressure on Germany; if Hamilton pulls off a win or draw, he can possibly get his third seed through.

Group F: This is the marquee group – the proverbial “Group of Death” – made even more insane by the managers in the draw. Argentina/Lasky has five star players and by far the best strikers (Crespo, Battistuta, and Lopez) and midfielder (Veron) in the group, as well as two speedy star defenders (Ayala & Aimar). Defending JAMDAT champion Jones has the tricky Nigerians, with Kanu as his star striker. Han has the very dangerous Sweden, which has three star players up front (90+ rated striker Larsson, Ljungberg and Ibrahamovic) – a great offensive punch. Finally, England/Hamilton is packed with talent all over the field – Owen’s speed, Beckham’s passing, Ferdinand’s defending. Predicted Qualifiers: Argentina-Sweden. Decisive Match: England vs. Sweden – this is Minard’s chance to capture the qualification slot from this group, and Han’s chance to seal the deal for the Swedes.

Group G: This one should be a walk for Italy/Cibuski. The Italians have great talent – they could always defend, but this year’s model comes equipped with several good strikers and some dangerous midfielders. The tough defense should allow Italy to fend off challenges by the weak offensive teams in this group. Croatia/Han is probably the best chance for runner-up. Ecuador/Jones and Mexico/Murray don’t measure up to the European sides. Predicted Qualifiers: Italy-Croatia. Decisive Match: Croatia vs. Ecuador – Croatia is not strong enough to win this one in a walk, so Jones has a chance to squeak out a low-scoring win or draw and throw a monkey wrench into qualification from this group.

Group H: This group is cursed with some of the weakest teams in the tournament, but some of the toughest managers. Belgium/Jones is the favorite, but not by much. His key is to free up Mpenza to score goals while keeping his defense tight. Japan/Lasky is a better side than one might think. They lack a deadly striker – Nakata’s star comes from his passing – but they have enough talent to score a few goals. Russia/Cibulski is a strong, talented team that will match up well with both Belgium and Japan. Tunisia/Kipnis would be a laugher in the hands of any other manager, but if anyone can wreak havoc with the lowly Africans, it’s Kipnis. Predicted Qualifiers: Belgium-Japan, but it’s a toss-up for second between the co-hosts and Russia. Decisive Match: Russia vs. Japan – with Belgium likely to pick up between 7 and 9 points, this match will determine second place.

Possible Final Stage Match-Ups: Given the tournament’s new soi-disant “Super Bowl” elimination round structure, the teams on the Korean side of the bracket have it much easier than the teams on the Japanese side. The Korean side favorites include Germany, Italy and Spain, with perhaps only USA, Portugal and Ireland as dark horses to win it all. On the Japanese side the favorites include Argentina, Denmark, Brazil and Belgium, with France, Sweden, England and Turkey lurking in the shadows. My “elite eight” picks are Italy, Croatia, Spain and either Germany or Ireland from the Korea bracket; Brazil, Argentina, Belgium and either Sweden or Denmark from the Japan bracket.

Final Four: Italy, Spain, Argentina & Brazil.